고금리의 파고가 다시 몰려온다: 케빈 워시의 연준과 신현송의 한은이 그리는 긴축의 지도 > 뉴스

Chairman Kevin Worthy, who was inaugurated as the new head of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, appears with President Trump's full support and is predicting a huge change in the Fed's policy stance. Wash, who overcame the financial crisis as the youngest member of the Federal Reserve Board, has a unique history of working across Wall Street, academia, and central banking. President Trump appears to be hoping to reestablish the authority of the Federal Reserve through him and implement a flexible monetary policy that is in harmony with his economic policy. However, the reality Chairman Wash faces is not easy. The market is already concerned that inflationary pressures will continue longer than expected, and fears of austerity are being reflected in prices, with government bond yields soaring to the highest level in 20 years. Chairman Wash has emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve since his inauguration, but the market is closely watching how well he can walk the tightrope between Trump's demands and price stability.

The Korean economy is no exception. Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song has publicly emphasized the need to raise interest rates three times in the past two weeks, raising market tensions to a peak. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is showing unusual growth thanks to strong semiconductor exports, but behind it is the dark shadow of consumer prices soaring to the 3% range and a high exchange rate that shows no signs of coming down from the 1,500 won range. In particular, Governor Shin effectively made the possibility of an interest rate increase at the July Monetary Policy Committee meeting a fait accompli by expressing that the interest rate should be raised ‘as soon as possible.’ This is not an intention to simply control prices, but an expression of a firm will to suppress the rapid increase in household debt and overheating of the real estate market and ensure financial stability. Now, rather than enjoying the fruits of growth, the Bank of Korea is choosing a path of severe austerity to prevent the epidemic of inflation.

Global monetary policy trends have already shown synchronization and have entered a path of tightening. The European Central Bank (ECB) was unable to withstand the shock of rising energy prices triggered by the war in the Middle East and took the lead in austerity by raising interest rates for the first time in two years and nine months. This trend is spreading to major countries such as the United States and Japan, proving that inflation is not a temporary phenomenon but has become a structural economic challenge. The fact that the U.S. producer price index and consumer price index in May both exceeded market expectations and reached the highest level in three years deepens the Fed's concerns. Ultimately, the huge wave of rising prices, coupled with geopolitical conflict, is forcing central banks around the world to return to their traditional task of protecting prices rather than stimulating the economy.

The market's reaction is showing extreme volatility. The KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets rode a roller coaster all week between expectations of the end of the war and fears of an interest rate increase, and showed chaotic behavior, with circuit breakers and sidecars being activated several times. Foreign investors led the rebound by engaging in large-scale net purchases centered on semiconductor companies, but if interest rates rise in earnest, downward pressure on the stock market due to reduced liquidity is an unavoidable reality. In particular, the interest rate hike will come as a direct blow to individual investors, who have been experiencing the 'debt investment' craze of investing by borrowing money, in the form of a sharp increase in their debt repayment burden. Experts believe that corporate performance will protect the market in the mid to long term, but they predict that market volatility will not subside easily for the time being depending on the results of the FOMC meeting and the pace of tightening by central banks around the world.