Blockchain-based prediction platforms led by Polymarket and Calci are currently breaking record trading volumes thanks to the World Cup special. This year, the amount of World Cup-related betting on these platforms has already exceeded $5 billion (approximately KRW 7.7 trillion), and combined with major sporting events such as the NBA finals, daily transaction volume has exceeded $1 billion. In particular, with the influx of users from states where sports betting was previously banned to the new platform, prediction markets have evolved beyond simple betting into a huge global financial phenomenon. This suggests that prediction markets are becoming a new financial infrastructure that creates capital flows by quantifying uncertainty in various fields such as politics, economics, and sports.

But behind the flashy numbers lies a bitter reality. Despite the apparent growth of the market, data proves that very few individual investors actually make profits. According to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal, 67% of profits generated in prediction markets belong to the top 0.1% of ‘professional traders’, and more than 70% of general participants are experiencing asset losses. Unlike ordinary people who simply leave it to luck, they invest enormous amounts of capital to purchase specialized data, operate sophisticated algorithms, and realize profits from minute price fluctuations. Ultimately, it is difficult to avoid criticism that prediction markets that raise public expectations actually contain a structural imbalance in which wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few who monopolize information and capital.

While prediction markets are driven by the logic of capital, movements to improve transparency and efficiency stand out in the real economy. Recently, SK Energy became the first company in the oil refining industry to decide to notify the supply price of petroleum products in advance on a weekly basis and abolish the post-settlement method. This is a measure that promotes coexistence between the gas station industry and oil refineries, which have had difficulty predicting purchase prices due to the unclear pricing structure, and further increases visibility of price trends for consumers. These changes once again confirm the principle that a predictable market environment leads to rational economic activity, and in contrast to the gambling-like nature of prediction markets, ‘resolving uncertainty’ is the most powerful competitive advantage in the real economy.

The semiconductor market, the center of technology and industry, is also experiencing intense dynamics of forecasting and supply. HBM4, the world's first mass-produced product by Samsung Electronics, is showing explosive growth, recording sales of more than $1 billion in just four months after its launch, driven by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. However, prediction platform Calci warned of a possible oversupply in the AI ​​semiconductor market, citing the fact that the rental price of Nvidia's flagship AI chip, B200, has plummeted by more than 30% in the past three weeks. This clearly shows how sensitive investors are in predicting the future between AI bubble theory and infrastructure expansion. Even in the technological field of semiconductors, an era has arrived where a company's survival is determined by how accurately it predicts market demand and controls supply, beyond simple production.