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작성자 playbbs 작성일 26-06-22 06:19 조회 220 댓글 0

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A huge wave worth 60 trillion won, a strategic challenge posed by the Canadian submarine order war

Written on: June 22, 2026 | Column by current affairs critic specializing in IT/media

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60조 원의 거대한 파도, 캐나다 잠수함 수주전이 던지는 전략적 과제
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The Republic of Korea’s defense industry has now faced a huge test to become a ‘global top tier’. The Canadian Navy's Next-Generation Submarine Project (CPSP) goes beyond simply building 12 submarines and boasts an astronomical scale of up to 60 trillion won to 120 trillion won, including maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) costs that will last for decades. For this huge order, the combined forces of Korea's Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Germany's traditional powerhouse ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) are engaged in a 'fight to the bitter end' without giving up an inch. At the recent G7 summit, President Lee Jae-myung said, “I have high expectations, but it is not easy to be optimistic,” and this order is heading towards a high-stakes security drama in which technological and diplomatic capabilities are complexly intertwined.

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The most powerful weapon that Korean companies offer is proven performance and unrivaled rapid delivery capabilities. The ‘Jang Bogo-III Batch-II’ class submarine proposed by Hanwha Ocean is the world’s first to combine an air-independent propulsion system (AIP) and lithium-ion batteries, securing stealth and long submergence capabilities that existing submarines cannot have. In fact, the Dosan Ahn Chang-ho crossed the Pacific Ocean and entered Canada, proving its long-distance navigation performance in real combat, providing strong evidence that it can meet the harsh Arctic ocean operational environment required by the Canadian military. In addition, Korea already has a production infrastructure that is continuously building submarines of the same class at Geoje Okpo Shipyard, etc., giving it a substantial advantage over its competitor, Germany, by offering a much more stable and faster delivery schedule.

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The German TKMS offensive against this is also formidable, and it is based on a Europe-centered ‘security alliance’ strategy that goes beyond simple technological competition. Germany, in cooperation with Norway, made an unconventional move by giving up the production turn for submarines that were scheduled to be delivered to its own navy to Canada. In addition, Germany is presenting a joint proposal to Canada to ‘jointly operate 24 ships in the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic’, emphasizing that it can maximize military interoperability between NATO member countries. From Canada's perspective, this is an attractive option that can dramatically reduce long-term MRO costs, and combined with the financial benefits provided through 'SAFE', a joint European defense industry financing program, it places a strong diplomatic burden on Korea.

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As the order battle nears its end, Korea’s all-out courtship toward ‘industrial contribution’, which the Canadian government selected as a key evaluation item, is attracting attention. Korea's strategy is to go beyond simple arms sales and pursue a 'package deal' to help Canada's economic revival. Hanwha Ocean promoted a project to build floating LNG production facilities with local energy companies, strengthened cooperation to secure the Canadian lithium supply chain, and promised to create local jobs and build an industrial ecosystem. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries also proposed to jointly research artificial intelligence-based ship systems with local universities and contribute to building Canada's infrastructure by mobilizing all of its affiliates' capabilities, including energy and construction machinery. This approach is squarely in line with the Canadian government's intention to rebuild Canada's aging industrial base.

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This project will be an important measure of whether the Korean defense industry can go beyond being a simple hardware exporter and establish itself as a security partner for the local country through technology transfer and joint production. In particular, in conjunction with the ‘Jang Bogo-N (nuclear-powered submarine)’ project recently formalized by the government, this cooperation with Canada is also the starting point of a grand strategy to strengthen Korea’s underwater deterrence and independent defense capabilities. Although there are still tasks to be resolved, such as building a government-wide control tower and diplomatic negotiations with the United States, the know-how and international defense industry network gained from winning this Canadian order will be decisive assets for Korea to take the lead in the global maritime security market in the future. The future landscape of the Korean defense industry is expected to change significantly depending on whether Canada's final choice is technology-centered pragmatism or alliance-centered political and diplomatic solidarity.

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■ Conclusion and analysis outlook

In the end, this 60 trillion won contract is a question of comprehensive national power and diplomatic trust beyond the traditional evaluation criteria of performance, delivery date, and price. South Korea is touting its practical strengths in the excellent performance and rapid production system of its deployed submarines, while Germany is touting its political advantage in its close military and financial alliance centered around NATO. Whatever Canada's final decision, this project proves that South Korea's defense industry is no longer a peripheral option in the global market, but has emerged as a confident technology powerhouse and reliable security partner. Rather than gloating over the results, now is the time to prepare for a bigger leap forward by maximizing the strengths identified through this contract battle and supplementing the diplomatic links that are lacking.

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