The reason why Micron's earnings announcement is attracting so much attention is because of its unique accounting structure that allows it to read the memory industry in advance. Since Micron's accounting settlement date is one month earlier than domestic semiconductor companies, market participants often use this as a compass to gauge the report card of Korea's 'semiconductor two-top' in advance. Wall Street is pouring out rosy predictions that sales in the third quarter will reach $35 billion, a surge of about 280% compared to the previous year, and earnings per share are also expected to jump nearly 10 times. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-performance server DRAM has exploded due to the craze for building artificial intelligence data centers, and Micron's HBM volume this year has already sold out. This structural growth is interpreted as a strong signal that the memory market has escaped the shackles of a simple business cycle and entered a long-term upward cycle based on strong demand.

However, behind the market's optimism, there is also a cold perception of reality. This is because expectations for performance are largely reflected in the stock price, and Micron's stock price recently plunged by double digits in the New York stock market right before the earnings announcement, sending a warning to investors. In the options market, a significant number of put options are observed in preparation for future stock price declines, which means that despite Micron's good performance, investors are wary of both the desire to take profits and volatility. In the past, Micron has experienced the ‘material disappearance’ phenomenon several times, with its stock price falling the next day even after announcing performance that exceeded market expectations. Therefore, what is important in this announcement is not the past numbers, but the guidance the company will present in the future and the specific answers on AI return on investment (ROI).

From the perspective of the domestic stock market, Samsung Electronics' actions are the key to market supply and demand. Recently, Samsung Electronics has played an important role in encouraging investment sentiment through an astronomical share purchase plan worth 90 trillion won and serving as a support to protect against the decline of the index. The method of paying performance bonuses in the form of treasury stocks through labor-management agreement and purchasing them in installments over three years is expected to have the effect of reducing the number of stocks in circulation while preventing market shock from a large-scale volume pouring in at once. However, the recent volatility caused by the rapid increase in leveraged funds such as credit loans and receivable transactions still carries with it the time bomb of contrarian trading. As foreigners continue to sell, whether Samsung Electronics' share buyback can lead to a substantial buying trend and restore the balance of supply and demand is expected to be a decisive variable in KOSPI settling at the 8,500 level.

In conclusion, this week the stock market is on the test to overcome a huge wave called Micron. There is no disagreement that the advent of the artificial intelligence era is driving the structural growth of the memory semiconductor industry, but short-term stock price overheating and macroeconomic uncertainty are still holding back investors. In particular, major macro events such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the announcement of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index are putting complex pressure on the investment sentiment surrounding semiconductor stocks. Rather than simply ecstatic about Micron's sales volume, investors should pay attention to how long the pricing power of high-value memory products can last in the future and whether big tech companies' AI facility investments are actually leading to improved profitability. Ultimately, the market will move based on future sustainability rather than the flashiness of numbers.