6·3 지방선거의 역설: 견고했던 이재명 정부 지지율, 균열의 시작인가? > K-wave Trends

The biggest feature of this opinion poll is the rapid volatility in approval ratings that occurred immediately after the local elections. According to a Realmeter survey, the positive evaluation of President Lee's performance in state affairs was 55.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous week, while the negative evaluation was 41.0%, up 4.2 percentage points. What is especially noteworthy is the daily approval rating trend on and immediately after the election day, with the positive rating of 58.8% the day before the election plummeting to 51.8% two days after the election. This proves that not only disappointment with the election results, but also administrative inexperience, such as the lack of ballots at polling sites, has directly damaged the government's credibility. The fact that negative evaluations have re-entered the 40% range after 5 months can be said to be an indicator that the leadership in running state affairs has been weakened to a large extent.

Political party approval ratings also changed rapidly starting from the election to a very close race within the margin of error. The Democratic Party of Korea recorded 41.8% and the People Power Party recorded 41.1%, narrowing the gap between the two parties to just 0.7 percentage points. Although the Democratic Party won the election itself by securing 12 regional head positions, it failed to recapture the highly symbolic mayor of Seoul and lost in key battlegrounds such as Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, causing its approval rating to drop by 3.1 percentage points. On the other hand, the People Power Party succeeded in forming a focal point for government checks based on Seoul, and its approval rating rebounded by 2.6 percentage points. This trend means that voters are very sensitive to the political implications of election results, and the strength of support for political parties is changing in real time depending on the cause of victory or defeat.

The key hit points for the decline in approval ratings are the moderates and voters in their 30s. Looking at detailed data by age, the departure of people in their 30s was found to be an astonishing 10.7 percentage points, which can be interpreted as the fatigue of people in their 30s with the government's major policy stance being expressed through the election. The Democratic Party of Korea also suffered a similar blow, with its approval rating for people in their 30s plummeting by 7.8 percentage points. In addition, the departure of moderates was calculated to be 6.5 percentage points, making it an urgent task to regain the trust of these voters in order to lead the next political situation. While the conservative class and those in their 70s or older are reuniting with the People Power Party, the phenomenon of those with relatively flexible political views turning their backs on the government and the ruling party is expected to place a significant burden on the administration of the government in the future.

The combination of the external economic environment and adverse administrative factors was also a catalyst that accelerated the decline in approval ratings. The sharp rise in the exchange rate late in the week and heightened economic anxiety acted as an external variable in the decline in approval ratings, and the shortage of ballot papers at local elections raised fundamental doubts about the government's administrative management ability. As Realmeter analyzed, the combination of these administrative mistakes and economic uncertainty gave rise to the theory of government checks. As a result, this election went beyond a simple change of person or victory or defeat of a political party, and became a test for evaluating the government's actual ability to carry out state affairs. As the report card appeared in a negative direction, the unity of the support base was weakened.

Changes in public sentiment by region are also an important key to reading political trends. The 6.9% point drop in positive evaluations in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions foretells a crack in the traditional political landscape, and the core bases of Incheon, Gyeonggi, and Seoul also fell by 4.7% points and 3.4% points, respectively, showing a weakening of the overall support base. The fact that the Democratic Party lost in major battlegrounds and the People Power Party maintained its victory in Daegu Mayor and Pyeongtaek, shows that the conservative class is quickly gathering amidst a sense of crisis. This regional polarization and shift in support suggests that political parties will need very sophisticated strategic adjustments in the future as they prepare for the next by-election and the next general and presidential elections.