The semiconductor market is currently going through an unprecedented boom driven by a powerful engine called artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment. However, market research institutes predict that price adjustments due to oversupply will be inevitable as new facility expansion begins in earnest from the second half of next year. In particular, it is significant that the rental price of Nvidia's core GPU, the B200, has recently plummeted by more than 30% in a short period of time. This is interpreted as evidence that although the AI ​​investment craze is still hot, GPU supply is starting to outpace demand growth. As a result, the market has now passed the first stage of growth centered on Nvidia and entered the second stage centered on memory semiconductors and data center infrastructure, beginning a fierce tug-of-war between oversupply and increased demand.

The energy market is also moving into an era of oversupply, facing the variables of easing geopolitical conflict and recovering production. China, which played the role of an ‘invisible hand’ by preventing a surge in oil prices during the Iran War, has now transformed into a demand-side buffer through the spread of electric vehicles and a decrease in crude oil imports. According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), a supply glut on a scale that will overwhelm the increase in demand is expected to occur next year when production in the Middle East region normalizes. This provides a sense of relief that will wash away the fears of past surges in oil prices, but on the other hand, it also connotes anxiety that the balance of supply and demand in the energy market may collapse at any time.

Agricultural products markets are the places where the ‘paradox of abundance’ brought about by technological progress is being most desperately experienced. Despite reducing the cultivation area, onion supply poured in due to favorable weather conditions and increased production per unit area, leading farmers to give up harvesting and face the tragic situation of plowing their fields. The unusual phenomenon of domestic onion prices being lower than imported ones, continuing for more than half a year, clearly exposes the vulnerability of our agricultural structure. Although the government and local governments are providing emergency measures through market isolation and promotional events, many point out that these remain at the level of temporary measures to prevent the absence of a fundamental supply and demand control system.

‘Failure of prediction’ and ‘technological acceleration’ lie behind the common oversupply in these industries. Companies and farms are faced with a dilemma of having to decide on production volume while it is difficult to accurately estimate future demand. Semiconductor companies must control the speed of next-generation process transition and compete for market share, and farmers are faced with the task of building a systematic supply and demand management center to increase producer-centered self-purification capabilities. Ultimately, it painfully proves that oversupply in all industries acts as an economic poison rather than a fruit of growth when it is not supported by sophisticated supply and demand management and securing efficient consumers.