재건축의 봄인가, 신기루인가: 서울과 1기 신도시 정비사업의 명암과 과제 > K-wave Trends

The ‘U-turn’ phenomenon from remodeling to reconstruction occurring among major apartment complexes in Seoul is a clear example of how policy expectations drive market psychology. Mayor Oh Se-hoon’s ‘Rapid Integrated Planning (Shin Tong Planning) 2.0’ contains the will to dramatically shorten the long project period, which has been a chronic problem in maintenance projects. In particular, the introduction of an artificial intelligence-based screening system and application of an ultra-short track for licensing procedures are instilling confidence in union members that reconstruction is a much more attractive option than remodeling. This is proven by cases where complexes that have been pursuing remodeling for a long time, such as Daelim 1st and Shindonga Apartments in Eungbong-dong, Seongdong-gu, are suddenly revising their business methods. This goes beyond a simple change in preference and shows how quickly private-led projects can change direction when combined with the carrot of increasing floor area ratio and easing floor regulations.

However, behind this preference for reconstruction, realistic constraints are closely intertwined. In order to achieve the level of deregulation expected by the market, not only the Seoul Metropolitan Government's ordinance revision but also a close policy agreement with the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport must be achieved. In addition, the floor area ratio incentive obtained through reconstruction inevitably requires payment for public contribution in the form of donations, and institutional mechanisms such as the reconstruction excess profit recovery system act as a major variable that undermines the profitability of the project. The long-term construction period and the recent surge in construction cost risks place a realistic burden of enormous additional contributions on union members. Therefore, rather than deciding on business direction based solely on policy expectations, a prudent approach that calmly considers the profitability, business period, and expected risks of each complex is more urgent than ever.

Separate from the reconstruction fever in Seoul, a new type of integrated reconstruction called the ‘Old Planned City Redevelopment Project’ is on track in Ilsan, the first new city. LH's designation as a preliminary project operator for Huindol Village Complex 3 and 5 in Ilsan New Town, Goyang, and the signing of a business agreement with the resident representatives are expected to be an important milestone in the integrated maintenance model. Moving away from small-scale maintenance of individual complexes, large-scale integrated reconstruction encompassing adjacent complexes and infrastructure is aimed at restoring the function of the entire city and improving residential conditions. When the existing complex with 1,444 households is transformed into a large complex with about 2,300 households, the residential value at the entrance to Ilsan New Town is expected to take a leap forward, and it is highly likely that it will become a successful example of the redevelopment of an old planned city.

Meanwhile, as large-scale reconstruction projects become visible in the Mok-dong area, it is clear that house prices across the region are being re-evaluated. A similar trend is being observed in Mok-dong as in the past, when Gaepo-dong, Gangnam-gu, recorded an explosive increase in market prices by transforming old residential areas into new brand towns through reconstruction. As the future value of reconstruction is added to the strong locational advantages of school districts, living infrastructure, and accessibility to major business districts, apartments in Mok-dong are continuing to see new prices. In addition, as complex residential products such as ‘Mokdong Yunseuljai’ are supplied, consumers’ interest in high-end residential models is increasing. This goes beyond simply replacing old apartments with new ones, and shows the ripple effect of the redevelopment project, which redefines the residential value of the entire region.