21세기의 고질라, ‘슈퍼 엘니뇨’가 가져올 문명의 대전환 > K-wave Trends

El Niño refers to a phenomenon in which the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator becomes abnormally higher than normal. The El Niño observed this time goes beyond a simple occurrence and is very threatening, with a 63% chance of developing to the strongest level ever observed between this fall and early winter. In particular, over the past several months, a precursor phenomenon has been clearly observed in which large amounts of hot seawater in the Western Pacific is moving toward the Eastern Pacific, rising from deep below the sea surface to the surface. This is following a very similar path to the data from the Super El Niño events that terrified humanity in the past, such as in 1982, 1997, and 2015. Scientists warn that this El Niño's sea surface temperature rise could soar from 2 degrees to more than 3 degrees above normal, which is likely to have an irreversible impact on the entire climate system.

The extreme weather events that Super El Niño will bring are dramatically different depending on the region, predicting global chaos. North and South America along the Pacific coast are likely to suffer major flooding from powerful hurricanes and record-breaking rainfall, which could lead to the collapse of infrastructure and disruption of daily life. On the other hand, major breadbaskets, including Asia, Australia, and East Africa, will be caught in a cycle of harsh heat waves and droughts, causing serious disruptions in crop planting and harvesting. These climate fluctuations are more than just a matter of whether or not it rains, they can become a fuse that causes the global food supply chain to collapse. In particular, in an international situation where fertilizer supply is already difficult due to war, this El Niño has a very high risk of accelerating the food crisis in underdeveloped countries and turning it into a humanitarian disaster.

Climate experts agree that this El Niño will create an even more destructive synergy with global warming, which is already accelerating. If the Earth is heated by greenhouse gases emitted by humans and a heat source called Super El Niño is added, humanity will face one of the hottest years on record. In fact, just as the previous El Niño made 2024 the hottest year on record and broke the Paris Agreement's cutoff of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the aftermath of this El Niño is expected to continue until 2027 and break a new heat wave record. This doesn't just mean that temperature levels are rising. The enormous amount of heat and moisture released into the atmosphere drives the intensity of storms, forest fires, and droughts to extremes, completing a vicious cycle in which climate change triggers a stronger El Niño, which in turn intensifies global warming.

From an economic perspective, Super El Niño is expected to inflict a significant blow. Climate economists, including Stanford University, provide clear evidence that economic growth slows as temperatures rise above normal. A surge in agricultural prices leads to rising prices, and volatility in raw material prices places a significant burden on the global economic system. Additionally, overburdened health systems and disaster response costs due to climate change will place enormous pressure on national finances. Our country is no exception. Due to the nature of El Niño, which affects the Korean Peninsula through atmospheric circulation with a lag of several months, it is urgent to make preemptive and detailed preparations for abnormally high temperatures and increased precipitation this winter and extreme torrential rain next summer, rather than an immediate heat wave.