여론의 숫자 뒤에 숨겨진 진실: 권력의 오만과 민심의 파고 > K-wave Trends

The hottest topic in domestic politics is the issue of the future of People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk, which arose after the June 3 local elections. Even in the face of the objective fact of election defeat, Representative Jang is practicing so-called ‘selective opinion poll politics’, claiming his legitimacy by selectively citing some indicators. In particular, his dismissal of pressure to resign by emphasizing only the temporary increase in the party's approval rating or the results of a specific survey led to strong criticism from reformists within the party and senior figures in the Yeongnam region, calling him a "weird representative who cannot read the public sentiment." In fact, in many opinion polls, more than half of the voices are calling for Representative Jang's resignation, and the dominant public opinion is holding the leadership responsible for the election defeat. This is typical of the political isolation that occurs when we forget that data is not simply a tool to secure favorable figures, but a tool that must read the overall flow and context.

The government's attitude toward public opinion polls is clearly evident beyond the country's borders and in Russia as well. As President Vladimir Putin's approval rating fell to below 30% due to the prolonged war in Ukraine and the economic crisis, Russian authorities took the plunge and stopped announcing the results of regular public opinion polls. When Putin's approval rating hit rock bottom in an 'open' survey in which respondents think of politicians they freely trust, the channel of information was blocked to cover it up. On the other hand, the strange phenomenon of still high approval ratings in ‘closed’ surveys asking for outright support provides a glimpse into the reality of the people’s inability to express their honest opinions under fear and strong rule. This suggests that approval rating numbers do not guarantee the stability of power, but rather may be an illusion created in a controlled environment, and prove that true public sentiment is cooling further in silence.

Meanwhile, the 2030 generation, who will be responsible for the future of our society, has a cool-headed perception of North Korea that is significantly different from that of previous generations. According to a survey by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, about half of this generation defines North Korea as a 'hostile target' rather than a 'cooperative target', and an overwhelmingly high proportion prefer peaceful coexistence or separate state relations rather than unification. These changes are interpreted as a result of reflecting the pragmatic values ​​of the generation that grew up directly witnessing North Korea's provocations and strained inter-Korean relations. In addition, when looking at the ballot paper shortage that occurred during the June 3 local elections, the temperature difference between generations is stark. The 2030 generation, which values ​​fairness, is strongly demanding re-election, citing process issues. This is not simply dissatisfaction with the election results, but sharp criticism of the damage to procedural legitimacy.

Public opinion in the digital age is now exposed to the risk of manipulation. According to a recent report by OpenAI, attempts by China-linked forces to divide public opinion in the United States using generative AI such as ChatGPT were detected. They attempted to distort the flow of public opinion by using AI to mass-produce political cartoons or to spread inflammatory messages claiming that certain policies are adding to the economic suffering of the common people. In particular, the fact that they attempted to manipulate public opinion by entering elaborate commands such as ‘Exclude President Xi Jinping from cartoons’ for their own political purposes warns that technology can be a weapon to disrupt public opinion, which is the foundation of democracy. Although these attempts did not have much actual impact, we must be wary of how easily public opinion in the digital space can be manipulated and the invisible strategic intent behind it.