9조 원의 승부수, ‘철도 사각지대’ 서울은 다시 연결될 수 있을까? > K-wave Trends

The core of this plan is to seek balanced development of the city by resolving the ‘transport blind spot’ of the Gangbuk and Southwest regions. As a result of the Seoul Metropolitan Government's analysis of public-private joint big data, it was revealed that some areas are suffering from serious imbalances, with rail access taking more than 20 minutes. To solve this problem, a total of six core routes were selected, including the Gangbuk Transverse Line, Nangok Line, Seonam Line, Seobu Line, and extensions of the Seobu Line and Sillim Line. Once this 68.5 km long railway network is completed, citizens' average subway access time is expected to be dramatically shortened from the current 9.97 minutes to 8.03 minutes. This means that approximately 7.83 million citizens will directly benefit, and it is expected to serve as a physical bridge to reduce the spatial gap in Seoul.

However, there is still a high wall called ‘economic feasibility’ between policy will and reality. The Gangbuk Crossing Line and Nangok Line were included in the 2nd urban rail network plan in the past, but due to the low cost-benefit (B/C) ratio, the project has repeatedly faced difficulties in carrying out the project. In this third plan, the city of Seoul worked hard to increase business feasibility by drastically reducing the number of stations and reflecting future development plans in large quantities. In particular, the strategy is to organically combine regional development projects such as Mok-dong redevelopment and Sillim District 7 with route planning, and use it as a driving force for urban regeneration beyond simply expanding the railway network. Even in a situation where the economic feasibility index does not exceed 1.0, the Seoul Metropolitan Government’s efforts to secure the feasibility of the project under the justification of ‘social utility’ and ‘regional balanced development’ are visible.

The key variable that will determine the success or failure of the project depends on the government's reform of the preliminary feasibility study (TA) system and political judgment. Recently, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance has strengthened the items of balanced regional development and public transportation efficiency in the preliminary evaluation criteria, creating an environment in which the policy logic promoted by Seoul City will gain strength. However, as this is a project that involves investing a huge budget of over 9 trillion won, budget support and close cooperation from the central government are essential prerequisites. In addition, external factors such as changes in private investment conditions and increased construction costs, such as the Western Line, which is being promoted as a private project, are also factors that threaten the continuity of the project. The Seoul Metropolitan Government is speeding up administrative procedures with the goal of passing the preliminary examination within the 9th term of popular election, but the speed of the project may change at any time depending on complex interests and political situations.

Experts advise that this announcement is positive in that it provides policy consideration for transportation-disadvantaged areas, but that it must be supported by thorough financial planning. Due to the low-profitability nature of the light rail project, the possibility of an operating deficit cannot be ruled out, which could directly put a burden on the city's finances. Additionally, the prevailing analysis is that the impact of railway line expansion on the real estate market will be limited in the short term. Simply drawing routes is not enough; a true ‘transportation transformation’ can only be completed when the efficiency of the bus route system linked to the railway network and the development of areas near stations are carefully coordinated. Attention is being paid to how Seoul City will communicate with citizens and shape this grand discourse in the remaining procedures, including public hearings and city council hearings.