AI 광풍의 명과 암: 한국 증시의 화려한 랠리와 ‘블랙먼데이’의 경고음 > K-wave Trends

Recently, Wall Street and global asset management companies are changing their view on the Korean stock market from optimism to gradual caution. Major foreign media outlets, including Bloomberg, reported that some global hedge funds are already reducing their exposure to the Korean market and forming a layered defense using derivatives. This is interpreted as a tactical move to protect profits in a market that has surged more than 90% in a short period of time, rather than the fact that the charm of the Korean market itself has disappeared. Investors are showing the wisdom of stockpiling ammunition in preparation for the possibility that a large initial public offering (IPO) such as SpaceX will suck out market liquidity and induce a cyclical selling market. This change in airflow should not simply be a signal that the market has weakened, but should be understood as the market's self-purifying action to strengthen its stability by reducing excessively concentrated transactions.

From a structural aspect, one of the key factors that make the market unstable is the distortion caused by the 'mechanical concentration of passive funds' and the 'early inclusion system'. As large companies such as Space This creates an artificial phenomenon in which the index inclusion itself raises the stock price rather than the company's actual fundamentals, resulting in the side effect of a 'shadow tax' that passes structural costs to passive fund investors. In particular, the volatility that arises when hedge funds preempt the volume before index inclusion and transfer it to index funds neutralizes the market's buffer and exposes ordinary investors to the risk of unexpected price drops.

Meanwhile, upheaval is occurring across the investment ecosystem, with traditional methods of raising capital collapsing and new forms of capital taking their place. The film industry, which was previously led by investment companies affiliated with large corporations and production committees, is now being reorganized by private equity funds, independent investment companies, and government-led funds. A representative example is the large-scale project investment by a private equity fund in director Na Hong-jin's 'Hope'. This is a strategic investment aimed at expanding IP (intellectual property rights) such as global OTT copyrights, webtoons, and games, breaking away from the model that relied on simple theater sales. These changes are common not only in Korea but also throughout Asia, including Japan and Thailand, and suggest that the film industry is building an advanced financing model in line with the trends of the financial market.

Another variable that increases market volatility is the outflow of foreign funds and the excessive use of leverage by individual investors. Global funds are withdrawing a record amount of funds from the Korean stock market this year, and the structure of individual investors receiving the entire amount continues. In particular, individuals' preference for high-risk products such as leveraged ETFs and weekly single-stock options pose the risk of exposing more vulnerabilities than imagined if the market reverses. In addition to the uncertainty of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and concerns about energy inflation from the Middle East, there are warnings that the Korean semiconductor stock rally may also face a strong headwind if the financing costs of U.S. big tech companies that supported the AI ​​rally rise.