The dawn of a semiconductor supercycle: AI memory transformation led by a ‘material manager’ > News

The paradigm of the semiconductor industry is being completely reorganized from ‘price (P)-centered’ to ‘production volume (Q) and facility investment (CapEx)-centered.’ In the past, the fluctuations in memory prices were a key variable in determining corporate profits, but now the explosive demand for high-performance memory for AI servers has led to a supply shortage and triggered a large-scale competition to expand capacity. Global memory manufacturers, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are expediting the construction of new fabs in places such as Pyeongtaek and Yongin and are doing their best to maximize high bandwidth memory (HBM) production capacity. These large-scale investments are directly leading to a backlog of orders from front-end equipment and materials companies, and the related industry is being evaluated as having entered the beginning of an unprecedented super cycle.

What is particularly eye-catching is the technological progress and supply chain diversification of equipment companies such as KC Tech. Recently, KC Tech successfully entered the SK Hynix supply chain by localizing supercritical cleaning equipment that had been monopolized by Japan's Tokyo Electron (TEL). Supercritical cleaning equipment is an essential, high-level design equipment that prevents pattern damage in microprocesses of 10 nanometers or less, and this supply is significant in that it has raised the technological independence of the domestic semiconductor equipment ecosystem to the next level. This goes beyond simply increasing sales of a specific company, and is the result of the alignment of interests between SK Hynix, which seeks to secure cost competitiveness in the future, and the materials and equipment industry that is pursuing local production of equipment, and is heralding a seismic change in the supply chain structure.

As high-level stacking technology for next-generation memory such as HBM develops, the importance of post-processing and inspection equipment is also growing exponentially. Back-end process equipment companies such as Hanmi Semiconductor, PSK Holdings, and Techwing are playing a key role in the advancement of packaging processes and are receiving a lot of attention from the market. As semiconductor miniaturization approaches its limits, the number and difficulty of deposition, etching, and planarization (CMP) processes increase, and these changes in the process environment further fuel the demand for high-precision equipment. In the end, an era has arrived where not only the miniaturization of the pre-process for high-speed data processing, which is the core of AI computation, but also the post-process packaging capabilities that unite these processes become the competitive edge of semiconductor companies.

Market experts emphasize that this change is not a temporary thematic trend, but structural growth based on expanded data center investment. The construction of China's large-scale AI data center infrastructure and competition among global big tech companies for infrastructure investment are key drivers that will continue to drive long-term memory demand. However, considering the high volatility unique to the semiconductor equipment industry, a strategy is needed to focus on selective stocks with visible actual orders or a technological moat rather than simply riding on industry expectations. The sales leverage effect that equipment companies will enjoy in the period where facility investment is in full swing is expected to be very strong, and this will be a key factor in determining the performance differentiation of semiconductor division companies over the next two to three years.