격변하는 세계 질서: 미국 패권의 균열과 신냉전의 서막 > 뉴스

The airstrike carried out by the United States targeting Iran's nuclear facilities was more than a simple military operation; it was an incident that clearly demonstrated the influence and limits of the United States in the Middle East. Former President Trump and other mainstream American forces are confident that this precision strike will be a decisive blow to bring peace to the Middle East, but the reality is not so easy. Iran is already employing advanced defense strategies, such as dispersing key assets of its nuclear facilities, and is preparing to consider the US attack as a clear invasion and transition into a full-scale all-out war system. It is extremely questionable whether the method of short-term bombing followed by ground troops, as in the past Gulf War, would be effective against Iran, which has a large territory and rugged terrain. The maritime blockade and proxy war surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will cause a surge in international oil prices, which is likely to exert serious inflationary pressure on the global economy.

Another axis worth paying attention to in this situation is the actions of Russia and China. Although Russia's national power is dispersed due to the long-term war of attrition with Ukraine, it is trying to use the chaos in the Middle East as an opportunity to benefit its own economic interests. Russia's strategy of securing customer countries and seeking an economic boom by using cheap energy resources, isolated by Western sanctions, proves how weak the U.S.-centered sanctions network is. On the other hand, China is strengthening its support for Iran and testing America's military response capabilities. China is expanding its influence beyond the Indo-Pacific region and into the Middle East, creating a state of 'strategic overload' in which the United States must respond simultaneously on multiple fronts. These powers, solidifying their solidarity through partnerships such as BRICS, appear to be declaring that the era of the United States single-handedly leading the world order is over.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical calculus surrounding India is also very complicated. India, which in the past struggled to strike a balance between the United States and China, is now seeking its own survival strategy in the changing world order, moving beyond the old conflict with Pakistan. The unstable situation in Afghanistan is a direct blow to India's security, and the movement of Taliban forces across the border is increasing tensions throughout South Asia. India is constantly walking a tightrope between solidarity with Western values ​​and its own pragmatic diplomacy, which means that its influence on the international stage has grown beyond compare to the past. Depending on which side India stands on in the competition for hegemony between the US and China, or what independent path it takes, the future Asian order will flow in a completely different direction.

Conflicts taking place around the world all have one thing in common. That is, the perception that 'the United States no longer has the will or ability to play the role of the world's policeman' is spreading around the world. From the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan to the war in Ukraine to the reigniting of the Middle East, America has claimed to defend its values, but the result has always been chaos and destruction. We have now entered an era of self-sufficiency in which each country must take responsibility for its own security. As the democracy conflict in Hong Kong, the political crisis in Myanmar, and natural disasters caused by climate change overlap, the international community is fragmenting and losing common values. In this multipolar chaos, reorganizing the international order has become an unavoidable task of the times.