47년의 적대사를 뒤로하고: 미·이란 종전 MOU가 던지는 파장과 셈법 > 뉴스

The weight of this agreement is unique in that this is the first time that the Iranian government has directly publicly stated the Supreme Leader's intentions. Minister Aragchi made it clear that this MOU will be a starting point for ending the conflict on all fronts, including Lebanon, and that the United States and Iran have reached a written agreement mutually respecting each other's sovereignty and sovereignty for the first time in 47 years. This MOU, which is scheduled to be signed remotely and digitally rather than face-to-face, proves that both countries want to quickly improve relations due to urgent need. Iran emphasizes that it secured its national interests through this war and stood against the United States as an equal, and is focusing on building a 'narrative of victory' internally that strengthens system cohesion.

However, despite the imminent agreement, the conflict over management of the Strait of Hormuz is still burning. Iran has made it clear that it will not return to the pre-war situation, emphasizing that sovereignty over the strait belongs to Iran and Oman, and sticking to its policy of charging a 'service fee' to vessels passing through it. This part reflects Iran's firm will to use Hormuz, a strategic point, as a pressure card against the United States at any time. Considering that the United States has so far shown a strong stance that it cannot tolerate Iran's policy of imposing tolls, this point is likely to serve as the most dangerous detonator that could lead to a potential conflict between the two countries even after the agreement.

On the economic front, the behind-the-scenes role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the issue of unlocking frozen assets are complexly intertwined. There are reports that the UAE provided billions of dollars worth of funds to Iran or contributed to the lifting of frozen assets, but UAE authorities have officially denied this and are drawing the line that it is only a diplomatic effort for regional stability and peace. The United States also placed strict conditions on economic benefits, saying that cash flow would not occur immediately until Iran concretely implemented the terms of the agreement. This is based on a high-level political calculation in which Iran claims to have obtained compensation for war damages, while the United States denies paying direct costs, thus protecting the 'red line' of both countries and seeking to resolve the actual conflict.

The core of the future roadmap is the nuclear negotiations and Israel's variables that have been announced since the end of the war MOU. Iran is showing a firm stance that it will not consider nuclear negotiations unless the previous agreement is implemented, and is insisting on diluting enriched uranium domestically instead of exporting it abroad, maintaining an attitude that directly contradicts the demands of the United States. In particular, Iran is showing strong hostility, pointing out Israel as a force trying to hinder the conclusion of this agreement. Whether Israel will obediently comply with the terms of the agreement, including withdrawal from Lebanon and cessation of attacks, or whether it will find an excuse to nullify the agreement will be a decisive variable in the future situation in the Middle East.